I suppose I could Google this. But I am here so I reckon I will ask the question. It was commented to me this morning that polling date indicates that each of the four top Democratic candidates would defeat Trump right now. I just wonder how accurate that statement is as I had seen his approval rating surprisingly high this past weekend.
I was going to say the same thing. Polls are asking the public. Our election asks the delegates. Plus soo much could change in the coming months!
Before we hit the panic button, there are a few factors we need to consider: Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but she lost the election in the Electoral College. This poll was taking the pulse of the popular vote. Pollsters can play games with their results by: The way they word their questions The sample size of the poll. The number of people they select. The source of the people they select. The most famous historical example of this had Alf Landon beating Franklin Roosevelt in a Liberty Digest poll in 1936. The Literary Digest was magazine for sophisticated, well-educated voters which did not reflect the demographics of the voters at large. The party affiliation of the people they select. A Fox poll earlier in the year had the Democrats up by a wide margin, but when the composition of the sample space was examined, it was found that almost half of the responders were Democrats. The percentage of registered Democrats is well below that. Any poll at this point is way too early. The real results will become clearer once the Democrats have selected a nominee and that person starts going head-to-head with President Trump. Then the polls will mean more. BUT once again, the Electoral College elects the president, not the popular vote. The Democrats pile up huge majorities in states like California, New York and Illinois where the Republicans hardly compete. A state by state analysis may be more important in predicting the outcome of this race.
I should have included the “enthusiasm factor” to my list. The Trump rallies are amazing events. My brother-in-law went to one. He was able to get in to see Trump speak, but many of the people were able to get into the hall. He described as an “amazing event.” One of tricks that politicians play to make it look like they have a gang buster size crowd is the hold their events in undersized rooms. That way it looks hot and crowded even though there might not be any more than few hundred people there. Trump rallies fill halls that seat thousands, and they still can’t accommodate everyone. The Trump supporters are loud and enthusiastic. That is a sign that Trump’s people are going to come out on Election Day. The Democrats had a disappointing turnout in Iowa. New Hampshire was better, but none of the Democrats, including Sanders, who has the most enthusiastic supports can compare with the Trump rallies. This does not mean that we have anything “in the bag.” We have got to work to get our supporters out to vote, and hope that the Democrats will be indifferent or dispirited. It’s a lot easier to get votes when you tell people that they are going get everything for nothing and someone else is going to pay for it. The Republicans tell people that you are going have opportunities to get jobs with the potential for higher wages. That is a much more realistic position, but not as easy to sell when there are folks who want a hammock instead of an opportunity.
