Expectations for 47

Let's see.... expectations for 47... hmmmmm... where to begin.

OK, here we go:

1. Set up concentration camps for anyone who didn't vote for him.
2. Destroy democracy on day 1.
3. Have Hitler's picture on the $100 bill.
4. Bomb the entire world, except for Mar-a-Lago.
5. Pull the moon down from the sky because it's too bright at night.
6. Replace JD Vance with Kim Jong Un.
7. Replace the bible with "The Art of the Deal".

Ya know what's funny? There are actually people in this country who BELIEVE he would do any of the things I've mentioned above. Those are the lunatics we should fear.

 

Didn't get better under Trump the first time

Even real gdp is on a stable upward trajectory.

What do you mean lost ground?

Which ballooned under Trump, pre-covid. His tax cuts and jobs act has been cited by economists as a major debt contributor.

I'm of the opinion this is good and healthy for the world actually.

Ah, so when dems do it, it's actually a bad thing the dollar is stronger. Gotcha.

Weird framing but okay

Can't argue there, covid accelerated my exodus.

Hey, I thought you liked unrestrained capitalism

 

Thanks, Please continue posting more ignorant ilk!

 

I note a few more American flags flying at my neighbors homes. I am already pleased with 47's impact.

 

Clever attempt at diversion, as the trade imbalance was pretty much the same when Trump left the White House as when he occupied it. However, it did get much worse under Biden, as can be seen below.

When Biden crows about how GDP is so much higher than Trump's, Real GDP corrects the GDP numbers for inflation, and suddenly Jobie's wild success story is taken out at the knees . . .

That’s complete bullcrap, and you libs all know it. It’s spending that creates debt, not the lack of revenue. Just because you have a credit card, doesn’t mean you should be irresponsible with it. If The People elect you to decrease taxes, then the bubble gum and balloons must go away . . .

Be careful what you wish for . . . What system of international payments do you envision as better facilitating exchange across all national borders?

Not what I meant, but I’m not surprised you misunderstood. I have no issue with Fed intervention if the Dollar should be strong and isn’t. Our current malaise is driven by DC’s refusal to pay down our national debt and, more recently, to other nations selling our debt because Jobie weaponized the USD. We do not deserve to be on top, and the sooner The People come to that realization, the sooner we will fix our problems. Either that, or the problems will fix us.

Weird to you, perhaps, but realistic. The American workforce surrendered to COVID as progressives egged them on, and American competitiveness and its standard of living are both in decline as a result.

Most of those who took early retirement went on fixed incomes before inflation hit (surprised though they are, it was not hard to see coming), and not cannot afford retirement in this economic environment.

Pretty full of yourself, hmm? You are not what I was referring to as “seasoned”.

Unrestrained? As in Enron, as in Long-Term Capitol Management? No, thanks. I am all for free-markets and fair competition, but a great many hypocrits look the other way as their 401K, 403B and IRAs get fat from letting muscle atrophy, leaving only skin hanging on bone. That is not the American way. Warren Buffet knows what he sees, and everyone else is stupid enough to sit around and wonder exactly what that is . . .

 

Well said.

 

I suppose his tariff plan may address this by brute force, but it's gonna be bleak. It won't be by raising the exports, just slashing imports.

I didn't call it a wild success story, I said it was on a stable upward trajectory, which is exactly what your graph shows.

Actual economists disagree. Besides, national debt continued to increase under Trump pre covid.

One more neutral. It's absurd to think people of the world should put up with having to use dollars. Nobody can trade until we get our cut? Ridiculous.

The weird part to me was trying to call the service sector unskilled

Ah I knew you'd come for me there. I meant I at least have over a decade of professional experience in my field and advanced training. I'll call it even though if you like because I do spill a lot of coffee

I do believe you're going to get your wish this term, I don't believe it will be pretty. We'll see...

 

Let’s just start here.

Really, actual economists? Sounds a little like 51 intelligence individuals say that the Hunter laptop is Russian interference.
I’m sure you have just a minimal understanding of third grade math, possibly ninth grade math now.
Surely you can balance your checking account.

 

Raising exports is hardly in the cards, as most of what we Americans produce offers poor value to other nations.

You either discount the fact, or don’t realize that many other nations already impose tariffs upon our products. Why in the world should we not do the same?

No, you’re right . . . You didn’t. I wrote, “The GDP has lost so much ground to inflation that the politically motivated statistics are misleading” in reference to Biden’s claims, which he did try to slip by the American people.

By the way, that upward sloping line on the graph? That’s only one fiscal quarter long . . . Same as the reporting interval. That hardly constitutes a “stable” trajectory.

No . . . All economists agree, but some economists would say they disagree . . . The Paul Krugmans and Stephanie Keltons of the world.

Conservative economists, on the other hand, would assert that a lack of revenue does not cause debt. It is spending which causes debt. Whether one earns money or not, if he / she spends no money, no debt is incurred.

We don’t get a “cut” from other nations transacting in US dollars.

Admittedly, it was a broad characterization, but it is well-earned, I assure you. The service one receives today in any market I can think of pales in comparison to a decade ago. While some of those whose service I decry may have skills, they are certainly unskilled in customer service.

When I had 10 years and my professional engineering license under my belt, I still knew I wasn’t seasoned in my field. I had multiple mentors who I revered for their 40+ years professional experience . . . Each!

Regarding the coffee, we’re even . . . I spill my fair share as well.

It won’t be pretty alright, but that can’t be attributed to Trump . . . This cake’s already baked.

 

Because it will only raise prices on U.S. consumers. As you said, what we produce is of poor value. Putting a massive tax on imports won't magically create the means to manufacture replacements for those goods locally, it will just make everything more expensive.

The graph is quarterly % change, the derivative of the Real GDP. Anything above 0 is a positive stable trajectory, but I'm pretty sure you knew that.

The "cut" is that in order to trade in USD, they have to buy USD, often as backed by buying our debt or treasury bonds.

Imagine you want to trade with your friend John, but for some weird reason you're only allowed to if you buy tokens from Jacob first. Insane any country would put up with this.

I very much agree I'm still in the learning phase. Actually that's kind of the only phase in research and academia... well, it is what it is.

Good to see you've set your mind that Trump's doing great even if things are awful under him

 

Take a more global view . . . Making imported goods more expensive incentivizes making them here. Work that left our shores decades ago likely will return . . . growing / mining / manufacturing essential feedstocks, better availability of and control of the quality of pharmaceuticals, reductions in freighted product and associated delays / pollution.

As for the means to manufacture replacements for those goods locally, we are a resourceful capitalistic nation. We will adapt.

Unfortunately, it will take a bit for the human resource side to come around. Lying flat is not only un-American, it is not conducive to survival. Many are waking to that fact, as reflected in recent election results.

That matters not . . . it is but a single data point, and insufficient to represent a "stable" trend. If the plot was trending upward for two quarters in succession, I'd give you the claimed stability, but the latest data in the plot are still erratic at this time.

No, they do not have to "buy" USD. They also get paid in USD for products they export. That's how international trade has worked since the Bretton Woods Accord.

"Actually that's kind of the only phase in" . . . life. That's why you're never smarter when you're younger than when you're older . . .

Like the tree would do, the apple's putting words in my mouth . . . Did I write that Trump' will necessarily succeed at making things great? There are cracks throughout the foundation, and Trump will have to repair them before building upon it. He's better qualified to get the job done than either Biden or Harris, I'll grant you that, but this nation is ill, and needs a lot of work.

 

I'm not convinced you can just declare "make it yourselves or it'll cost more" and the market will gracefully fill in the gaps.

Okay, now I think you don't understand your graph. Each data point is the slope. There's only 3 data points where the slopes are negative. Everything else is positive change to real GDP, and pretty consistent through both presidencies represented

The Bretton Woods Accord makes no sense now that the USD isn't backed by gold. It's the reason crypto people are so excited right now. I don't think crypto is the answer, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Trump go off the dollar standard. Remember World Liberty Financial?



The USD standard is unsustainable, crypto people believe it's the future because it's more neutral and created via resource intensive processes. I don't believe it, but it seems Trump might. It also doesn't matter if it's right or not, because the main goal of crypto people is to be the ones in control of the new monetary system. Even if it doesn't catch on fully, you can bet Trump's gonna enrich himself like crazy through this venture.

Are you open to the idea Trump could potentially make things much worse?

 

GeneWright, posted: "]Trump's gonna enrich himself like crazy through this venture."

By golly, I think you caught on. Trump is a Capitalist businessman. Just like the Senators, Congressmen, CEO's, and the BIDEN CRIME FAMILY! Did you know Trump is cashing in with Trump Watches? Of course not. I know you don't get all the news that's fit to print.

@GeneWright posted: " Are you open to the idea Trump could potentially make things much worse?"

NO!
No one can dig this country out of the hole it is in with powerful nations against it coupled with enemies within supported by a brainwashed group of ignorant snowflake kids and adults crying, cutting their hair, etc. It will be impossible to out do what Biden's puppet masters did. I'm not surprised you asked this question because you are probably one of them.

My favorite thing lately is watching ignorant voters suffer! They voted and cheated for their pain four years ago when Biden got 81 million votes - the most anyone will ever get. Why can't you figure it out for yourself? You have disappointed me again.

 

GW = CLOWN.
Math is NOT that hard. Equality is Equality. Science.

 

What is this all about anyway? I saw some odd piece in passing showing crying liberal women cutting their hair. What is the endgame other than a self inflicted temper tantrum?

 

Capitalists in the US will immediately see a serious advantage with high tariffs imposed upon targeted offenders (China for all manner of goods / Russia for strategic metals in particular), not only for the generous increase in price elasticity, but also for the advantage in delivery time to market. Most, if not all of the reasons for surrendering such work to overseas concerns over the past 30 years will have diminished.

Trump's energy around cutting the Corporate Tax to 15% for goods made in the USA would only add fuel to that fire.

No, you are wrong. That plot doesn't tell you squat about stability within the quarter. The data could be erratic as all Hell between Days 2 & 89, but if on the final day of the quarter, the Real GDP was higher than on the first day of the same quarter, you deem it to be stable? . . . that feigns intelligence and exposes ignorance.

As far as I'm concerned, the crypto-folks can keep their excitement. Err, I should correct myself . . . the speculators can keep it. I do believe some more efficient outgrowth from blockchain technology will dominate the transactional landscape, but not in our immediate future. It's far too energy consumptive to scale for routine transactions like grocery bills, lotto tickets, gassing up, paying tolls, etc.

Previously I wrote,"No, they do not have to "buy" USD. They also get paid in USD for products they export. That's how international trade has worked since the Bretton Woods Accord." You act like the Breton Woods Accord was predicated on gold . . . it was not. That the USA held the most gold on Earth instilled confidence in other nations, but the genius of the Accord was in establishing a single unit against which all others would be pegged so as to equitably calculate all transactions, no matter who the counterparties were.

Sure, I consider anything possible, but I consider it quite a stretch that either Biden or Harris could deliver results similar to what we will get from him, let alone more favorable.

 

I'm not optimistic we have the means to fill the gaps, but we'll see. Especially if he couples it with getting rid of immigrant labor.

No, you are wrong. It's stable quarter to quarter. If daily fluctuation is such a big deal to you, why did you share a quarter to quarter growth chart?

I think you're wrong here, it was predicated on the ability to convert usd to gold.

Fair enough, I just hope down the line you'll rationally be able to see the cause and effect of his policy and any consequences (be they positive or negative)

 

We already have plenty of American citizens who need those jobs. Some of them want to work and don't have jobs, and others think they can continue not working, and really cannot.

I don't care a hoot if it fluctuates day to day . . . I was making a point. You can look at that plot and not be able to tell whether the Real GDP climbed steadily for 90 days, or if it rose more rapidly for 89 days and plummeted on the 90th.

There's a reason economists generally define a recession as 2 consecutive quarters of declining Real GDP. It's the same reason they look for 2 successive quarters of growth to identify an expansion. One quarter doesn't confirm stability of the trend in either direction . . . They require 2 consecutive quarters to confirm that the trajectory is sustained, and therefore stable.

Not after 1971, it wasn't. The USD was fine for international trade in the eyes of all nations until the Biden administration brain-farted it into damnation.

Like I wrote before, this cake's already baked . . . My hopes are high for Trump to succeed, but Jobie has really stacked the deck against him. Externalities aside, the benefits of Trump's moves should still be apparent.

 

Why do you keep talking about 1 quarter? They had regular growth for almost every quarter